Researchers are predicting a national shortage of general surgeons beginning in 2010 if current population and enrollment trends continue. According to an analysis published in the journal Surgery, the United States could see a shortage of 1,300 general surgeons beginning as early as 2010 and worsening to 1,875 in 2020 and 6,000 in 2050.

There aren???t enough surgical trainees to make up for the growing number of retirements in the field, say the researchers from the Ohio State University Medical Center. Meanwhile, the U.S. population continues to grow and age, creating more demand for healthcare services.

"The government must take proactive steps to increase the funding for surgery trainees to prevent this shortage and maintain the level of access and service to continue the provision of high quality care for the U.S. population," conclude study authors Thomas Williams, MD, PhD, and E. Christopher Ellison, MD. They note that federal funding for general surgery residencies was capped in 1997 and is unlikely to increase in the current economic and political climate.

Rural and community hospitals are expected to be hit first and hardest by the shortage of general surgeons. The study authors predict the shortage will also trickle down to surgical specialties such as urology, cardiology and OB-GYN.

—Irene Tsikitas