Summer Report Forecasts Significant Growth in ASC Volume in the Next 10 Years


Released in June 2023, the Sg2 2023 Annual Report forecasts significant growth in ASC case volumes across a number of key specialties in the coming years. ASCs will see 12% in the next 5 years and 22% growth in the next 10 years, according to Sg2’s 2023 Impact of Change Forecast Highlights. Among the specialties that are forecasted to show the largest change are GI, ophthalmology and orthopedic procedures, which continue to lead the increase in the outpatient market.

The Ambulatory Surgery Center Association (ASCA), representing ambulatory facilities across the country, weighed in on the news that significant growth is on the horizon. “As this report highlights, the need for outpatient care will continue to grow – and despite the reimbursement, regulatory and staffing challenges that surgery centers continue to face, they stand ready to build the capacity to safely and efficiently treat the patients who will be coming their way,” says Bill Prentice, chief executive officer of ASCA.

“The services expected to see the greatest movement toward ASCs will be those that are clinically appropriate, reimbursed by payers and done by physicians who are incentivized to work in ASCs,” says Tony Guth, senior consulting director of intelligence at Sg2. “While the ASC case mix will continue to be heavy on gastroenterology and ophthalmology, we expect a continued increase in cases shifting from hospitals for services like orthopedics. In select markets, there may be a rise in cardiac cases moving to ASCs, driven in part by private equity firms seizing opportunities to collaborate with independent cardiology groups.”

The growth of ASCs and any future models will revolve around two important factors – rising healthcare costs and more patients entering the system as baby boomers age. The rising costs are not only due to capital equipment, renovations and medical devices but also reflect staffing costs that are increasing as the labor pool shifts. Access to care and the aging population will influence healthcare delivery for the coming decade.

The 2023 Impact of Change Forecast reports outpatient procedures that are considered major and requiring general anesthesia will grow by 18% by 2033, which includes total joints, total knee and spine surgery. Furthermore, overall ASC volume will increase by 16% in ten years. Colonoscopies are expected to increase by 24% by 2033, another indicator of the aging population.

Sg2, a Vizient company, is the healthcare industry’s premier authority on healthcare trends, insights and market analytics. For more information, go to Vizient Inc. OSM